“Reconciliation Talks” – A tactical Blunder:

For the last few days there have been signs of rapprochement between the two factions of the Somali Federal Parliament based in Jowhar and Mogadishu. It is a welcome sign and one that the Somali people has craved and prayed for a long time. It is hoped that there will be a quick solution to all issues separating the two sides and that the long a waited process of nation building will be started. But there is at the same time a real danger that the process could break down again and if that happens, we will be worse off than we are now. Why is this so?

As it is now, the whole world is rushing to recognize and extend help to the faction that is based in Jowhar because they look like they are in the majority and that their concerns about the insecurity of Mogadishu has been vindicated time and again by all the killings and violence that has overwhelmed that unfortunate city. Many prominent Somalis in the fledgling government and also in the civil society have been murdered as are many ordinary Somalis on a daily basis. There has been targeted killings and other politically motivated assassination attempts on leaders such as the Prime Minister. One wonders how things would be if the entire government moved to Mogadishu and an incident like this succeeds.

The faction in Mogadishu is definitely losing legitimacy and is anxious to rejoin the mainstream. But they would like to do that through a back door route that would save them both face and political future. The faction in Jowhar is similarly anxious to start the process of governing the whole country and would not mind to bend backwards to accommodate their foes from Mogadishu. On this rosy path to hag and kiss there are numerous pitfalls and possible disappointments and a real likelihood for formal disintegration. The reason is that once a group that is heading for defeat finds an avenue for escape, they tend to squander it and possibly try to manipulate the forum to their advantage. It will also be difficult to start this process of reconciliation because the points of dispute are not very clear. For this reason also, there is a danger that the process will drag on for months and disrupt the movements and progresses that the Jowhar group is making now. Besides, if there is a disagreement after the meeting between the two factions, the country could quickly slide towards a full fledged civil war.

 What should be done then?

Sincerely speaking, there are no disputes between the two sides to speak of. There are only personal differences between the various warlords that have now joined the same government. Bad blood between them will continue for a long time and there is nothing anybody can do to change that. Sitting together across a long table and facing each other, their mutual distrust of each other will overtake their concern for their poor country. Any misplaced gesture or an unfortunate statement could spiral out of control and bring forth all the biases and prejudices that have separated them for a long time. The result could be a disaster and the Somali people have shown that they are easily manipulated by their canny and sly leaders.

I would suggest that when the two sides meet, it should be a full House (parliament) chaired by the speaker Shariff Xassan himself and that the points of disagreements should be debated as it should have been done after coming home from Nairobi. After a democratic deliberation and in the event that there is no consensus, Parliament should vote on the issues and the winner should take all – as it should be. The question on where the temporary seat of Parliament shall be should be solved in that session without the threat of militiamen and ‘technicals’ hovering around outside. There will be no Hotel Saxaafi to intimidate the MPs and both Muusa Suudi and Qanyare will be tame. Maxamad Dheere should also be as far away from that forum as is possible. Shariff Xassan would feel safe and secure with the entire parliament around him and MPs will be casting their votes in secret so that threats to their families are eliminated. This would save everybody some face and secure their political future too. The world would also know that the Somali people, left to them can solve their problems amicably.

The question as to where the meeting should be is very important. Mogadishu is out of the question for obvious security reasons. Baydhaba is equally bad if not worse. Kismaayu is a city under occupation by a warlord who has not yet even taken the oath of office and would rather sit on the fence and consider himself as a third force. He is trying to have the best of both worlds and his mediation is not likely to benefit the Somali people but will only legitimize his occupation of Jubbaland. Besides, the people of Jubbaland would find that rewarding Barre Hiiraale with a visit by either the President or the Prime Minister is tantamount to telling him “Hey, you are doing a good job terrorizing and taxing these people. Keep it up and tell us if you need help.” The peoples of Jubbaland will then be thinking that their future lies in an armed insurrection. Jowhar therefore, is the only venue for the up-coming parliamentary session and after that session there shall be no more disputes worthy to talk about and the world will be that much safer and more willing to help.

 Abdulkadir Khalif Khalif8888@hotmail.com